Jan 1 / Ozymandias

2007 Game Industry Predictions & Prognostications

game-industry, predictions-and-prognostications

As promised, here are my game industry predictions for 2007. I wanted to publish them today, at the beginning of the year, with the intent of us all reviewing them a year from now. Should be fun, no matter what the result!

Note that I was unable to use many of your suggestions as they were Xbox 360 specific. Making predictions around the Xbox is problematic for me as I have to be very careful to not even hint at anything I might know. I apologize, but I hope you understand. And hopefully you’ll find the below predictions controversial enough for now. Wink

There are only eight predictions here as I think I would have been stretching to reach ten (especially without Xbox bullets). Look forward to your comments – and Happy New Year!

2007 Game Industry Predictions:

The original PSP (with memory stick) will be discontinued, and replaced by a new model with an integrated hard drive. The new model will enable connectivity to the Playstation store via internet connection, and allow you to purchase and download both emulated PS1 and native PSP games directly. Over time (meaning not in 2007), it will also allow you to purchase music and movies from the Sony store.
The Playstation 3 will have an effective price drop of at least $100 by Thanksgiving 2007. By effective, I mean that it’s also possible that the price will remain the same, but at least $100 of value will be added to the bundle.
Nintendo will release their own Live Arcade service for the Wii. Specifically, this means Nintendo will enable third-party developers to create, distribute, and sell casual games for the Wii and DS through a new Wii channel.
The Nintendo DS will continue to outsell the PSP in 2007. It will also enable DS<->Wii wireless connectivity, enabling cross-platform gaming scenarios and the purchase of Nintendo DS casual games. It will not enable the download and purchase of full retail games for the DS, however.
Apple will expand their gaming efforts significantly. The most likely scenario is investment in iPod and the (soon to be announced) iPhone devices to enable a common game development platform for developers to target. This platform will include WiFi wireless connectivity, user accounts and presence, and the ability to trial and buy content from a games channel in the iTunes store. Apple will not enter the gaming market with a home console of their own.
HD-DVD will begin to pull ahead of Blu-Ray in the high-definition DVD format war. This will be measurable by number of DVDs available for either format on Amazon, and total player sales (including the Xbox 360’s HD-DVD add-on and the Playstation 3’s internal Blu-Ray drive).
By the end of 2007, total lifetime unit sell-through of home consoles will be led by the Xbox 360, followed by Nintendo’s Wii, with the Playstation 3 third. This order will also be true of units sold-through solely in 2007 (ie, not lifetime sales).
Google will show significant public interest in the gaming sector for the first time, including interest in acquisitions to bolster their Ad-sense business. The most likely target will be IGA Worldwide (to combat Microsoft’s acquisition of Massive). If unsuccessful, Google will seek to acquire one of the larger game publishers on the market to gain a foothold in the in-game advertising market. Likely targets include Electronic Arts (though it would be extremely expensive), Activision, or THQ.

Nocebo

Nice. 365 days or so and we can see how this pridiction went.

I never thought about google entering the gaming space before, but that prediction seems really plausable. For my money, i’d bet they take out activition.
http://www.klio.org/marks/ Mike Kozlowski

The HD-DVD prediction is awfully bold, if you count PS3s. Unless you think the PS3 is going to tank badly, which seems the likely case at the moment, I guess…
Kypdurron5

I agree 100% with all these predictions except the following:

1) While I’m not willing to predict that Blue-Ray will pull ahead of HD-DVD, I’m also not sure the opposite will be true. I think to predict a winner at this point is the difference between a "guess," and an "educated guess."

2) Xbox 360 probably will have greater lifetime sales than the PS3, however, I think it’s unlikely that the Xbox 360 will outsell the PS3 solely in 2007. I believe the reason the Xbox 360 has done so well until now is that the PS3 didn’t exist until November 2006, and after that it wasn’t available, leaving the Xbox 360 and Wii as the only alternatives. Now that the big rush to buy a console by Christmas 2006 is over, and now that the PS3 will be more readily available, I believe the PS3 will sell more units than the Xbox 360 in 2007. Anyone who wanted an Xbox 360 could have had one at any time over the last year; now it’s time for everyone who wanted PS3s but weren’t willing to wait in line.
http://streetgeek.com.au Valheru

I pretty much agree with Kypdurron5. I don’t think there is much basis to expect HD-DVD to pull ahead, particularly if you count PS3 numbers towards Blu-ray as Mike said.

I think that it is possible that 360 could out-sell PS3 over 2007 and that the biggest factor will be the games. 360 sales will be driven by the release of Halo 3 (especially if it comes sooner than we think (i.e. Summer rather than Autumn) as some people are predicting). PS3 will similarly be driven by its biggest franchises like Metal Gear and Final Fantasy. It all comes down to what gamers want to play more.
Lockout

http://www.kotaku.com/gaming/ps3/plenty-o-ps3s-but-no-takers-225271.php

Seems like PS3′s aren’t selling. I think the prediction might be a little hopeful for the Xbox 360, but I agree that the PS3 will sell the worst.
Shawn

Never thought about the Google thing, interesting.
http://www.klio.org/marks/ Mike Kozlowski

To clarify, I think counting PS3s as Blu-Rays is insanely generous. My expectation is that only a small fractions of PS3s will pull any regular Blu-Ray duty at all, and that the more accurate comparison would be to count each PS3 as a fraction of a Blu-Ray player (a good fraction to use would be the total number of 360 HD-DVD drives sold divided by the total number of 360s sold).

Kyp, regarding your second point: You forget that people are very price sensitive. (If you don’t believe me, take a look at the Gameboy Advance sales for the last month. There is literally no reason at all for anyone to buy a GBA except to save $50 vs. the far superior — and already pretty cheap at $129 — DS, but it still sold in bushels.) There are going to be a lot more people who want a 360 at $199/$299 than wanted it at $299/$399. And conversely, it seems like there may not be many people at all who want a PS3 at $499/$599…
Johndg

Kypdurron5 said: "Xbox 360 probably will have greater lifetime sales than the PS3, however, I think it’s unlikely that the Xbox 360 will outsell the PS3 solely in 2007. I believe the reason the Xbox 360 has done so well until now is that the PS3 didn’t exist until November 2006, and after that it wasn’t available, leaving the Xbox 360 and Wii as the only alternatives. Now that the big rush to buy a console by Christmas 2006 is over, and now that the PS3 will be more readily available, I believe the PS3 will sell more units than the Xbox 360 in 2007. Anyone who wanted an Xbox 360 could have had one at any time over the last year; now it’s time for everyone who wanted PS3s but weren’t willing to wait in line."

The only problem I see with this is the fact I work at Gamestop and only 10% of all the ps3′s in our distric have sold since Christmas. If what you said is true all the people avoiding the rush would have been coming to get them by now.

Valheru said: "360 sales will be driven by the release of Halo 3 (especially if it comes sooner than we think (i.e. Summer rather than Autumn) as some people are predicting). PS3 will similarly be driven by its biggest franchises like Metal Gear and Final Fantasy. It all comes down to what gamers want to play more."

Most of the people I talk to in store don’t think Halo or FF will make this year without losing the quality people expect from them. They think this because FF has no date yet for the US and a 12/31/07 date for japan(IGN) which isn’t a good sign, MGS only has a Q4 07 date which could easily fall to 08, and Halo has the best chance with an expected date of fall 07.

I personally think Halo will make this year although I don’t know if it will be as great as it could be. If FFXII is any indication FFXIII won’t make its date, and I am holding judgement on if MGS4 will make it this year.

Sorry for the block of text.
Tdiddy

I think you’re over estimating the Xbox 360.
Anonymous

All good feedback – it’ll be interesting to look back at this thread a year from now. To the point about not all PS3s being used as Blu-Ray players – I totally agree, but I can’t think of a clean way to measure this otherwise. So we’ll give them the benefit of the doubt for this metric and see where it lands.

As to the point about predicting HD-DVD vs. Blu-Ray being early – also true. This one is tough. I’m leaning toward HD-DVD because of the negative connotations Blu-Ray has gotten to date from (early) poor picture quality and players, as well as being tied to the PS3. HD-DVD doesn’t have this baggage yet (though it may well find its own issues, such as the AACS crack). And in general, it appears HD-DVD drives (not talking on consoles) tend to be slightly cheaper which always helps. Again, we’ll see in a year.
pankwindu

I also think the 360 outselling in 2007 is a bit optimistic. My guess is that it will follow the pricing order: Wii first, then 360, then PS3. The Wii has much more "family" and/or "casual" appeal, plus the lower price.

P.S. Anyone who thinks the PS3 will outsell either system is dreaming. The buzz has turned into anti-buzz, demand is already tanking, and it will not have the game lineup to justify its choice over the other two (especially at a PREMIUM!) for a long time, if ever. Only thing it has going for it is Blu-ray playback, that’s not enough to affect its market share to any significant degree.
Rob 3k

I don’t see the PS3 outselling even the PS2 in 2007.
…

1, true, psp is dying system. i dont see any quality game apart from mgs:po

2, ps3 is already making debt. why would that happen??? retailers would do that anyway

3, very likely, nintendo should be doing that

4, no reason why ds wont outsell dying console this year

5, dunno, im not into music, music is boring imo

6, i dont know what would win HD DVD. it was big mistake for microsoft not to release Vista in HD DVD disc

7, doubt $400 system will outsell $250 system for another year. nintendo has solved shortages and seems they will reach 20m earlier than XB360

8, not interested
by the way…

has micro$[/b]oft reach 10m shipment to consumers yet???
J.Goodwin

Microbeersoft. I like that.

360 should be able to outsell PS3 in 2007 in the US and Europe and other territories for sure. Japan is difficult to call still, but I think that no matter how many units they move in Japan, it won’t be able to offset the all other region advantage of 360.

FF13 isn’t coming in 2007. There are doubts now that it will even come in 2008 (I personally think 2008 is good to go, but those doubts are out there). You might see FF13 spinoffs before you see the main game.

Someone that isn’t in the business now is going to move into the gaming business this year. I think that they have already approached Capcom for a takeover.
Misframed

As far as PS3 sales, here is Southern Illinois I have found them at every store I have went in this week. Walmart and Target both had multiple units sitting on the shelf.

I picked up a 360 at launch but my broher wasn’t so lucky and he could not find one til March. 360′s were selling w/in an hour of being put on the shelf last year at this time.

You could say that there is possibly more stock of PS3′s than there were of 360′s but when multiple units are siting on the shelves…
vittala

I went to over 10 stores after Christmas to find a Wii and all but the last store was sold out of Wii’s several had PS 3′s in stock. The last store I went to (Toys R Us) had Wii’s for sale. When I got there at 10:30 they had about 6 left with the next two people in front of me both buying one. I asked the lady at the counter when they got there shipment in and she said they got 12 in at 10am that morning… It sure seems like the Wii is a huge success and it is a lot of fun to play. It seems like the PS3 has an up hill battle on its hands.
bean

Here are some Xbox predictions since you probably can’t do too many of them (since you may already know the results):

1. XBLA will adapt to competition and allow for larger than 50MB downloads in order to compete with the downloadable libraries of the other two systems, but they’ll still fall behind despite this change because it will come too late.

2. Xbox 360 will continue to have the largest game library throughout 2007 with the most exclusive titles. However, Microsoft will continue to buy up development houses in order to have a competitive first and second-party library in future generations of consoles (as well as to simply make more money through them).

3. Xbox will gain some penetration in Japan though it will be hard fought. This will lead to alleviating the negative brand recognition in Japan and continued support for Japanese-developed games in Japan will allow them to take second place in Japan throughout this console war (behind the Wii).

4. Microsoft will cut the cost of the 360 by $100 in actual box price as they will need to do so due to the fact that the mass market continues to feel that $400 is too expensive. They probably won’t do this until their storage facilities get close to full and stores are not asking for replinishments, so it is hard for me to predict when this will happen.

5. The Core unit won’t go anywhere. However, at $200 it will be lower-priced than the Wii and will play more and better games than the Wii. People who buy it will be upset with Microsoft because they’ll end up paying an extra $100 for the hard-drive anyway.

Also, I disagree with one prediction. I think that the Wii will still be going super strong in the first quarter of the year (It’s still sold out everywhere), and this will lead to stronger sales throughout 2007, though it will be close. Microsoft’s price-drop will make the system affordable to the mainstream market and games like Bioshock, Lost Planet, Halo 3, Blue Dragon, and Lost Oddysey will move systems even to staunch Sony or Nintendo supporters.
http://www.unscleric.com UNSCleric

I can’t say I disagree with a single prediction. Very nice.
Joseph

Damn you all and your piles of PS3 units!

Here in southern LA ps3s are still hard to come by. I saw a 20 gig unit in the local circut city, took some time to decide of I wanted it went back to the store and it was gone. The same thing happened later in the day when I called Target. They had several(more than 2 according to the clerk) in stock, when I got there an hour later all the units were gone.

—

Is Microsoft still making xbox’s? I can only find new 360′s.

—-

Other than that the predictions look pretty reasonable.

I would say that this thread needs one nutty prediction that will come through.
J.Goodwin

Joseph,

The rumour in early 2005 was that Microsoft had already or was soon to kill production of Xboxes in advance of the 360 launch. There certainly aren’t any new ones being produced now, unless they’re spare parts units or refurbs (similar to what SEGA of Japan did with the Dreamcast).

http://news.spong.com/article/8507?cb=562
Nambo

The WII mania will begin to fade near the end of Q1 or early Q2 due to lack of quality games. The release of 1st party games are sparse and 3rd party multi platform games will simply use the WIImote in gimmicky ways making the WII version vastly inferior to the PS3 and 360 versions. In addition, I don’t think the casual gamers that Nintendo are attracting now will purchase many games making the WII less attractive to develop for.

The trend of multi platform games being as good or better on the 360 will continue. That combined with well timed, quality exclusives will cause the PS3 to continue to struggle throughout 2007. As the 360′s base installed base increases, more PS3 exclusives will jump ship effectively ending the PS era. Heads will roll and acts of seppuku(hara-kiri)will run rampant at Sony over the shame of loosing to the imperial western power known as Microsoft.
islandkiwi

If you take into account the 360 having a price drop by spring/summer, I can’t imagine the 360 not taking top spot for ’07. With the current game library and the anticipated games, even a 50 dollar reduction would make the decision between a ps3 or a 360 a much easier one to make.

And choosing between the 360 and the Wii will be easier too…I fear the Wii will follow the same path as the Gamecube, with a small (but stellar) gaming library.
http://www.myspace.com/hova_uk HOVA uk

Google taking over EA? It would be a first wouldn’t it.. a Partnership with EA wouldn’t be such a bad thing.. most games are slowly showing more ad’s, if Google managed the ad’s would it seem as such a bad thing..

I wonder if Google, would instead help Nintendo with their online service, they could start to introduce new services espicially for the Wii, Google Maps for the Wii?

It won’t suprise me, if that happened
Shawn

I would also like to predict something, The Wii in 07 will not do well and will go the way of the gamecube (even though i liked the gamecube).
Best thing M$ can do now is to cut price of Xbox 360 consoles

Microsoft better cut the price ASAP. if they leave it too late it can break m$’ success in america and europe.

Reason why cutting price is so important: As PS3 and Wii gains more games, their system will look more attractive. currently 360s are bout $200 cheaper than ps3, but they gotta know that ps3 has name value. if they can create unique selling point as "great console to play multiplatform titles at lower costs with rumble" it can make 360 a huge success.
Aiphanes

The PS3 will pick up steam in the second quarter of 2007, after the March 2007 release of the console in Europe and the March 2007 firmware update. In March there will be a lot of new game releases, Lair and Motorstorm, ect….

By November 2007, there will be a $100 price drop of the PS3, The 20gb model will be $399 but will include wifi and the memory card reader, and the 60gb model will drop in price to $449-$499. This will fuel explosive sales. There are now over 170 bluray titles and about 400 more titles will be released in 2007. Bluray will dominate HD-DVD.

There are more exclusive PS3 titles in the works that you know and some of them will be released by the 4th quarter 2007. MGS4 and Devil May Cry 4 will be released by the end of the year. Bully 2 will be released by the end of the year. Guitar Hero III will be released by the end of the year.

The PS Store will offer music, movies and video downloads to both PS3 and directly the PSP.

Two new PSP models will come out after march 2007.

8GB flash memory model with dual analog sticks for $150.

30gb 1.8 inch hard drive model with dual analog sticks for $250

Movies will be downloadable directly from the PS Store.

The following total world wide sales for end of year 2007… Now remember the Wii can not substain 3 million units sold per month on the current available titles, plus there is no online gamming yet.

The PS3 can sale 700k to 1 million units per month world wide, and the Xbox can sale 600K units per month at best.

So here is what it will look like at the end of this year. Quote me!

Wii – 12 million (700K per month avg)

PS3 – 11 million (800K per month avg)

Xbox 360 14 million (600K per month avg)

Remember at least 50 percent of the people who have a PS2 will by the PS3 and not the xbox 360..The Xbox 360 will stall at 25 to 30 million in 3 years and then stagnate like the old xbox. The PS3 will keep going higher and higher because of price drops and good games. The Wii is still just a gamecube with a awesome controller….in 3 years everybody will have a HDTV and will want a PS3 or Xbox 360…if you already got a PS3, you will buy a PS3 not a Xbox 360…if only nintendo supported 720p and had a graphics chip at least half of what is in the Xbox 360 or the PS3..they would have had a chance to totally dominate…The Wii will not last more than 3 years in its current form.
10shu

7- if microsoft wan’t to outsell wii for 2007 they should fix\upgrade the quality of there system.

ok the 360 look pretty good, and got some good game now…but come on!!! I have to send it twice to repair already…it happen to lot of my friend too…

not that good for microsoft public image…
Bruce

About the PS3 being used as a Blu Ray player, I can only say that anecdotally, one of the reasons I want to buy a PS3 is because of the Blu Ray player. This is especially so considering I already own an xbox 360. For me, this is the preferred option over buying a HD-DVD add-on for the 360. That way, I get a HD media player and the ability to choose great games, whatever platform they come out for. If the game comes out for both platforms, then for sure the respective reviews will direct me towards which console I’ll purchase it for. There is one big caveat to that: xbox live. This is not a hardware issue, this is a service issue, and Sony still needs to prove they are up to the challenge, because in my opinion "next gen" is not just about hardware superiority, it’s also about connectivity.

While I’m on about xbox live, I purchased an account for my partner because we often play together. After a couple of weeks, I’ve learnt to pick my friends carefully as there are some real loosers out there who will just jump at the chance to be crude and profane towards a female player. (I’m pretty easy going but I draw the line at some complete stranger talking about how he wants to grab my partners ***) I wonder what real value the gamer-zone selection has, as I’ve noticed people from all zones tend to end up in the games we’ve played in. I’d perhaps suggest an "age/maturity zone/preference" might be a good addition to xbox live as well.

Getting back on topic, from a logical POV, if you own a PS3, and don’t own a HD-DVD player, then if you are going to invest in a HD movie, then obviously it will be in the blu-ray format, unless for some strange reason you’ve decided the PS3 doesn’t cut it as a blu-ray player, and all the reviews I’ve read tell me it does a great job of that.
Shawn

"Microsoft better cut the price ASAP. if they leave it too late it can break m$’ success in america and europe."

Substitute Microsoft and m$ for sony and I would agree with that statement. 360 is already $100 cheaper, Sony will make the first cut when they see people aren’t ready to blow $600. When they do MS will also cut.
Mycroft

Aiphanes said:

> The PS3 will pick up steam in the second quarter of 2007, after the March 2007 release of the console in Europe and the March 2007 firmware update. In March there will be a lot of new game releases, Lair and Motorstorm, ect….

> By November 2007, there will be a $100 price drop of the PS3, The 20gb model will be $399 but will include wifi and the memory card reader, and the 60gb model will drop in price to $449-$499. This will fuel explosive sales. There are now over 170 bluray titles and about 400 more titles will be released in 2007. Bluray will dominate HD-DVD.

Those are pretty bold statements considering that the PS3 is reportedly losing Sony about $200 per console. Even the PS2 only had it’s first price drop after 18 months.

I’d say there’s a much higher chance of an XBox 360 price drop than a PS3 price drop. If Sony drops their price before they’ve reduced the cost of the console then it means they’re not selling as many as they’d like, which is bad, not good. Microsoft has had a year now to re-engineer and cost reduce the XBox 360, so they’re probably ready to roll out a new revision with a price reduction.
dphenix

Great predictions Ozy.

The 360 will probably come on top sales wise for 2007 due to price drop and the large number of good exclusive titles like Mass Effect, Blue Dragon, Eternal Sonata, Crackdown, Lost Planet, Too Human, and of course Halo 3. Ultimately I can see the wii close behind because it’s really exciting the market, and I still can’t find one .

Google buying their way into game development should be interesting. Who are they going to support and if they do buy out EA, would EA start making better games?
Apparently this is PR driven

"I’m still amused to see some people think this is PR driven. Simply put, it’s not – nothing I have ever posted has been seen, filtered, or approved by PR or Marketing at Microsoft. I can safely state this as it’s a simple fact. Microsoft just happens to be very progressive in its thinking around blogs. I know that my stating this won’t change some people’s minds, and frankly, there’s nothing that will. But I did want to state that for the record.

More important in my mind, the comment above implies a belief that I filter or censor comments. This isn’t the case, and there may be a technical issue happening that I want to explore with your help."

We are still amused to see Andre Vrignaud think this is not PR driven. Simply put – IT IS, everything we have ever posted has been seen, filtered, or approved by PR or Marketing at Microsoft. We can safely state this as it’s a simple fact. Microsoft just happens to be very conservative in its thinking around blogs. We know that our stating this won’t change Andre Vrignaud’s mind, and frankly, there’s nothing that will. But we did want to state that for the record. More important in our minds, the comment above doesn’t imply a belief that Andre Vrignaud filter or censor comments. This is the case, and there may be a personal issue happening that we want to explore. Now also this site is a PR move on MS part so expect it to cast a positive light on their products. We are also less than happy that only every 3rd post of ours doesn’t make it here but, this is a MS blog written by someone involved on the 360 project.
10shu

Well, ozy is working for Microsoft..So yeah he give a positive view of the 360…I mean the guy beleave on the product it work on there nothing bad about that…

and for about filter and censoring…I don t know…But there s not just positive reply above…

One of my message been removed once…but it was out of subject like this message in fact
Joseph

It seems like comments are being lost today. Mine never got through.
http://live.xbox.com/member/DarkBlades25 DarkBlades

I have a prediction, Bungie will drop a homemade bomb on Sonys Gaming Industry, yes I said industry, every aspect of Sony that relates game.
Anonymous

Re: "and for about filter and censoring…I don t know…But there s not just positive reply above…

One of my message been removed once…but it was out of subject like this message in fact "

Keep in mind there is an automated spam filter that looks for too many "bad" words and won’t post stuff. If you’re having problems posting something, try writing it up differently, or mail me the text if you think that there’s really nothing there that should have been auto-blocked. To this day I have never deleted any posts that weren’t pure spam or asked (by the poster) to be deleted. I don’t see the point. <shrug>
toxic apple

Valheru said: PS3 will similarly be driven by its biggest franchises like Metal Gear and Final Fantasy. It all comes down to what gamers want to play more.

Hum… Microsoft will have GTA 4 and Final Fantasy…

…Assassin’s Creed too?! And there are a lot of rumors from Konami about MSG4 on the 360…

My prediction: No more exclusive franchise for the PS3…
lmfao

Naughty Dog’s Adventure game (Codename ‘BIG’)

Ratchet & Clank

Motorstorm

White Knight Story

Lair

Heavenly Sword

Devil May Cry 4

Zipper Project (probably SOCOM)

Warhawk

Hot Shots Golf 5

Eight Days

Ya, PS3 has nothing exclusive….ok there toxic apple. The funny thing is I want more exclusives on PS3 in 2007 then any other console.

But as far as sales go, at the end of 2007 I see Wii in 1st, 360 in 2nd, and PS3 in 3rd, but not as far behind as some people like to think. Still, I believe Wii will win the console wars as far as sales are concerned.
Tish

1problem with the hd-dvd thing. I live in Belgium, and in every shop I went to all I see are blu-ray players, and the clercks that work there all say "blu-ray is the next step". So I’m a bit affraid that blu-ray will win thanks to the big marketing campain from sony…

(ps: i have not even seen a hd-dvd player/dvd in belgium)
Spin

out of that list of ps3 exclusives there are only about 4 to look forward to:

motorstorm

lair

heavenly sword

devil may cry 4

the rest are a waste. socom will get owned by halo (again), gthd/5 will be owned by forza 2, wii sports golf is probably going to be better than hot shots golf, warhawk looks like a hyped up blazing angels, etc. it can go on. also, i own a ps3, so don’t think i’m not looking for things to play, i sure am. there isn’t any reason for me to play it right now. the playstation network is a bunch of hype, any multi platform game i’d rather play on the 360 and get achievements (ie. "SIXAXIS" is a waste). the ps3 is going to go through its growing pains but to me it seems like it has a lot more pain to go through than the 360 did when it launched. honestly, i hope something big happens for the ps3 in 07 so i don’t have a $600 black box that just collects massive amounts of dust.
Anonymous Coward

The Google idea is interesting, but a bit unlikely from my perspective. Still, if they bought EA and choked off the supply of EA games to Microsoft, GamerScore might actually become a viable measure of gamer performance, where as marketplace would finally be rid of an extremely problematic issue: tons of content for tons of points without tons of value.

Oh, and the list omits that video marketplace content will be usable on the Zune.
Jason

Spin, you probably don’t know a good game if it smacked you in the face. I bet you have no clue what White Knight Story even is (an action RPG from the VERY talented Level-5 team), or that Ratchet & Clank is one of the best franchises of the past 5 years, or that every new IP that Naughty Dog develops turns into gold.

I currently own all 3 consoles, just got my PS3 last in mid-Dec. And the majority of games I’m looking forward to most in 2007 are only on PS3. There are a few exceptions like Halo 3, Super Mario Galaxy, and Super Smash Bros. Brawl, which are also very high on my most wanted list. But I know Naughty Dog’s new game will be an incredible action/adventure, as will Ratchet & Clank. And White Knight Story is going to be an action RPG fan’s dream, as anyone who has seen the gameplay video or know of Level-5′s track record, will agree.

I think the major problem is that many people simply don’t do their research, and then they end up with a dumb conclusion like ‘Wii60′ is the way to go. **** that. PSWii60 is the only way to go as far as I’m concerned. Owning all 3 consoles is the only way to properly experience a 5 year cycles of consoles.
Gone Nanners

Jason said: "PSWii60 is the only way to go as far as I’m concerned."

I agree wholeheartedly, but some of us have bills to pay and can’t afford to drop six hundred bucks on a black box with no games to play on it. I’ll be waiting a couple (read: probably 5) years before I get a PS3.

… said: "dunno, im not into music, music is boring imo"

YOU’RE boring.

I can’t find who said it, but somebody said that if Google does try to put their foot in the gaming market, I agree that it’ll probably be activision. They’re not top-level, but they’re getting there. EA would be WAY too expensive. And I’m trying really har to think of what THQ has done lately….the only thing I can think of is Red Faction but I KNOW they’ve come out with some other stuff. I just don’t want to take the time to look it up.
http://playgamers.net/ LarryDik

"HD-DVD will begin to pull ahead of Blu-Ray in the high-definition DVD format war."

I’ve heard that the adult industry has chosen Blu-Ray. Isn’t this a strong indication that Blu-Ray is going to be the new standard? After all, the standard of VHS and todays DVD format was both set when the adult indistry went for these standards.
RealWeaponX

Nope, Porn went HD-DVD afaik…
My prediction…

There will be PS3 loader after European + Austrailian PLAYSTATION 3 launch. the folks in europe already have PS3 loader and is ready to release after not before ps3 pal launch because otherwise there would be firmware update before launch
yazzer

Wii will outsell 360. I own and like both, but pricepoint and appeal to mass market will put the Wii in the lead.
giant_frying_pan

"This order will also be true of units sold-through solely in 2007 (ie, not lifetime sales)."

I think this is the prediction most likely to end up being wrong!
Joseph

This is a paraphase of the post that didn’t make it. Nothing that should have tripped a filter.

***Hmmm

It’s not posting and I’m curious So I’ll try posting in parts and see what gets cut.

***

My guess to all those who say the 360 will drop in price is that it will not happen any time soon.

It seems that the total cost of making the 360 is going up. By using off the shelf componets the 360 debuted pretty much as cheap as it could be made. The very irregualar build quality prompted an extension of the warranty. Unless they have fairy magic more money will be spent buying higher quality componets and tighter build tolerances.

On the PS3 end the big price items are the BD drive and the cell.

The BD diode is also used in the HD-dvd. It will hit a mass production discount fairly quickly. The cell is also getting adopted by others allowing a greater level of general developer knowledge along with cheaper prices.

The premium for the console is the fact Sony HAD to eat the cost of low yields or risk even less units then they had at launch.

The abundance of PS3′s, still not here, seems to point to the fact that Sony has fixed its production problems even faster than MS did with the 360 roll out. They may even be out producing Nintendo at this point.

It wouldn’t be hard to think that the build cost of the PS3 has already come down %10 since November. Using completely standard hardrives and wireless will allow them to purchace these items discounted also. MS is locked to the 20 gig size until they come up with a modification to the harddrive based content protection.

2007 Game Industry Predictions & Prognostications

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