Thoughts on PS3 Launch Quantities Being Cut
Few folks wrote to ask what I thought about the news that Sony had cut launch volumes from 4 million units to 2 million, and delayed the European launch until March of 2007. In addition, Sony also announced that they would have just 500k units for launch, with 100k going to Japan and the remaining 400k to the US. The stated reason is production issues with the blue laser diode.
Frankly, there’s not much to say. Launching a console worldwide is really, really hard, and I’m not terribly surprised. The game industry seems to not be overly-surprised either. Most game company stocks are down by maybe 1%, and even GameStop is only down a point (as of 9:45 this morning). That’s noise for these traditionally volatile stocks. I suspect you’ll see analysts speaking up in the coming days and basically pointing to the “Wii60″ picking up the slack that Sony can’t fulfill – people need to put something under their tree, after all.
I think the biggest impact on Sony is that this reduces the number of Blu-ray sockets in the market for holiday. I can guarantee you that Sony’s conversations with movie studio execs would have included promises about the number of PS3s that would be sold this holiday, and those numbers would have been used to help justify the investment those studios would have to do in Blu-ray movie mastering and manufacturing. This news is going to make a lot of those studios look twice at their Blu-ray strategy. Sony will likely have to make good on those missing sockets (which could be expensive), and it’s quite possible you’ll see some of the Blu-ray only studios hedge their bets and start supporting HD-DVD as well.
I don’t think Sony will delay their Japanese and US launches until next year, however. Not having Blu-ray in the market for holiday would effectively give HD-DVD a huge boost, and Sony simply can’t afford that. Blu-ray (not video games) is what Sony is betting the company on; they can’t afford to not launch in some fashion, even if the games aren’t there.
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I see that many people online are focusing on the European delay, but the almost insanely low launch numbers in Japan and North America (does that include Mexico and Canada?) is hard to fathom.
I understand Sony wants to get at least some units out the door before the end of 2006, but it might make more sense to launch in 2007 as this will cause confusion, anger and more customers and publishers moving to X360 and Wii.
While this announcment isnt unexpected, it is shocking to say the least. Sony gave no indications whatsoever about this.
Re: "I understand Sony wants to get at least some units out the door before the end of 2006, but it might make more sense to launch in 2007 as this will cause confusion, anger and more customers and publishers moving to X360 and Wii."
It would make sense if the PS3 was primarily a game machine… then you’d most likely see a delay of all regions to next year, with extra time taken to focus on launch titles and manufacturing sufficient units to support a worldwide launch.
However, the PS3 is primarily a Blu-ray socket to Sony (albeit one that can also double as a profitable game machine long-term). This is why each box is burdened with the cost of an expensive and arguably unneeded (at least for games) drive… and this is also why Sony *must* launch the PS3/Blu-ray drive this holiday, or they risk HD-DVD momentum becoming unstoppable.
They’re between a rock and a hard place. Believe it or not, I actually feel sorry for them right now… lots of folks must not be sleeping very much.
Be honest Oz…..you guys at MS must be popping the Cristal right now. Or at the very least laughing like crazy.
Just knock it out of the park for TGS. That is all i ask of you.
I think Microsoft’s strategy to get the jump on PS3 added to the manufacturing issues Sony has had with their new technologies, has totally derailed the launch plans for PS3.
Had the PS3 not included BluRay it could have shipped in Spring 2006 at $300-$400 dollars, making it a very competitive product, especially considering their brand-name recognition.
As it stands, Sony’s battle just got that much tougher. I expect this announcement to have major repercussions throughout the gaming industry, perhaps even causing some games to be delaued until greater sales numbers are established.
hmm… given that I am actually planning in getting a 360 here in europe these are not good new for me (since I am awaiting a slight price drop or some increased content for the same price). And yes, I know what has been said about the price drop, but if it is going to happen its never gonna be before the PS3 is in the market for sure…
I think Sony needs to launch this year in NA and Japan as planned even if it is will fewer units. Sony needs to push the Blu-ray front for the holiday season, or else there are 75 new Blu-ray movies out that 0.5% of the population will get to watch. Besides, they will have a good helping of games at launch and the mystique of a shortage boosts gamers interest in the system. It seemed to be the case with the PS2 at least.
On a seperate note, it really is a bit shocking at how the PS3 press so far has had a negative effect on the core gamers perception of the system. On various gaming sites there are posts of people claiming they are jumping the Sony ship. In the long run I don’t think it will matter but, its interesting to see how so many peoples minds can be changed in a matter of months due to news they read on the internet.
This is interesting news, to say the least. With the low launch numbers, as well as holding production of all Blu-ray lasers for the PS3, this means the reach of the Blu-ray format will be limited.
HD-DVD is catching some steam. People are already praising the format as having better video quality than the first batch of BD titles, greater interactivity, and a solid batch of titles. Sales of HD-DVD players are also higher, thanks to the earlier launch.
I wrote about this on my blog, but I hope Microsoft capitalizes on this with the HD-DVD drive. A release date is not yet known, but if they were smart they would release it a month or so in advance of the PS3 launch. Basically, 500k Blu-ray players at launch, in addition to the remaining stock of Blu-ray players on the shelves; versus the nearly six million potential HD-DVD players built into the Xbox 360 market share, not including the continued development of standalone HD-DVD players. The consumer has a choice – do they take their chances and try to get their hands on a very limited number of Blu-ray players this year, or do they go with HD-DVD which is readily available? I would imagine the Hollywood studios are also looking at this situation, and asking which one they should throw their support towards (hint: it’s the one with the larger potential consumer base). Blu-ray is the one (questionable) competitive advantage Sony has with the PS3, and if consumers decide HD-DVD over it, then how can a $600 game console survive?
Personally, I am ready to make the leap to an HD DVD format, I’m just waiting for Microsoft to release the add-on drive, as I’m sure many others are too. If it’s released in advance of the PS3, it would basically trump Sony at their own game. As I mentioned in my blog post, "And once those people jump on the HD-DVD train and start loading up on HD-DVD titles, the less chance they would adhere to a second high definition DVD format – namely, Blu-ray."
In the olden days I bought a PS2 at launch (10.26 if may aging memory serves). And it was over a year after launch that I bought my first Xbox. I wasn’t to Xcited over the Xbox, but the lure of Halo was to much
I’m saying all this to illustrate my non-denominational nature. Oh, and I camped out at Target to get my 360 at launch. So, it’s with great gavitas I as WTF is wrong with Sony? If they were ever going to have a hope of getting market penetration with the (IMHO overpriced) PS3, they needed a huge pre-holiday launch, coupled with a big time movie on bd and a great launch title. The news that at most there will be 400k units for North America is almost a death nell – who can say 3DO. Or Jaguar. Sooooo, now it’s time for the 360 weasles to code up some interfaces with my PSP 
That’s it for me. I’ve really been sitting on the fence over which console to commit to but this delay has turned the tide (I’m in the Australasia region). I’m buying a 360.
This does not mean a PS3 is out of the question, but to be honest, given the hefty price-tag, I admit it has become unlikely it will ever find its way into my living-room.
To be honest, in spite of the constant doubts being raised over the validity of including Blu-ray on the PS3, it was a point of difference that made me feel it was worth hanging in for. When you couple that with the HDMI support, my feeling was that the PS3 did represent a superior piece of hardware to the 360.
But at the end of the day, the Xbox 360 is going to be able to deliver a wonderful next-gen gaming experience, is significantly cheaper, and it’s available now.
Oh yeah. And Halo 3 is on the horizon
I wonder what will happen to the multiplatform title, I suspect software house will not be very happy they spent so much developing for PS3 too and now they practically cannot sell those games….
nopants:
I actually regard the phenomenon you’re describing as being entirely appropriate. Here in Boston, we have a tendency to rhetorically throw in the towel when the Red Sox lose a few straight. As soon as they win a couple, everyone’s back to thinking of the team as unstoppable. (Although, when the Sox are this far out…it gets difficult to get back on the wagon).
I guess that console fans are no different from fans of sports teams.
While I don’t hate Sony on the whole, I think they are arrogant for thinking they can take the world by storm with the PS3 AND Blu-Ray in the same holiday.
Honestly, all this could have been avoided if Sony went DVD instead of trying to whore out a brand new format.
Thank God everyone is moving towards digital distribution so we don’t have to worry about a format war NEXT time around…
P.S. I wonder if we’ll ever see that PS9 from the old PS2 commercials… hahaha.
I believe that all would agree that Sony’s Blu-Ray strategy is dragging down the PS3. Sony needs a win to counteract their current bad run of negative PR (price, delays, no-rumble,etc.). Overall I believe that Sony’s poor format history is going to hurth them badly. If you step back it seems like they are putting most of their eggs in one basket as they are tying Blu-Ray into all of their technologies. It makes you wonder how the component shortages are affecting their other Blu-Ray products such as PC’s and Blu-Ray players.
One question that I have yet to see answered is, "If economies of scale makes Blu-Ray cheaper will the price of the PS3 drop?" Seems like a trite question but Sony has large short term deficits due to PS3 development.
Chairman Blank:
I’m in the semiconductor manufacturing business so I’m fairly certain the hold up with the blue laser diode is a yield issue since the process is inmature. Since this is pretty much out of Sony’s control and a liability of the manufacturer they won’t be seeing any saving, so neither will we in the form of a PS3 price drop. When the process matures and the manufacturer works out all the kinks, the yield will go up and then we might see some prices drop. It could take awhile though.
J.Goodwin:
I totally know what you mean. I graduated from Texas Tech and our quarterback 2 years ago in his opener missed a ton of passes in the first half. We still won by 30+ points, but he was never able to live that first half down and everyone thought he sucked. Its kind of an extreme example, but I’ve never seen this applied to a console release especially several months before the console is even released. There were some grumblings about the original Xbox before release but not nearly this much or this bad. I think in the end the PS3 will do ok but who knows, the hate train is picking up steam.
If my math serves me correctly, MS plans on having 10 million units shipped by year end. Since Sony plans on introducing only 500K units by this Xmas, this in essence will cause them to miss the Next Gen Bus by a year.
Since most developers aim for the Christmas peak season and the days of console exclusivity is diminishing rapidly (GTA 4, Assassin’s Creed and Mercenaries 2 comes to mind) can Sony play catch up with a handful of games and a movie format that isn’t much better (hehe) than HD-DVD?
I think they are royally screwed, and their arrogance might have cost them the battle. Not to mention, you have a wild card in the Wii that could potentially beat you on your own soil.
It don’t look very good for Sony……
You guys, as much as I wish to believe logic and common sense would lead the things you are saying to be true…
I’m almost positive that no matter how many launch units there are… no matter what the price… no matter what the quality. Sony will somehow STILL manage to lead the market.
I know its stupid to say that at this point but my past experiences have showed me, people want a "Playstation" doesn’t matter if its actually good or not… its more of a namebrand thing. Xbox has picked up tremendous weight and speed since the Xbox 1 but I gotta go with what the past has proved: Sony will lead the market no matter how crappy the system ends up being.
Then again, I thought the (superior, IMHO) PSP would blow the DS out of the water but I was wrong.. so maybe the tide is turning.
Still, to this day I would rather have a Dreamcast than a PS2, but look at the sales numbers… and the Dead after a couple years dreamcast, RIP.
Sony inserted themselves into the market as the "cool" system for people who never even played games and it worked big time. Now they are positioning themselves into this generation as the "cool" and "more powerfull" system to own. Even if its B.S. you can’t tell the drooling fanboys that. AND even if it truely is inferior in both quality and games the fanboys will STILL praise it as God.
Plus MS had their fair share of haters before the Xbox was even an idea. Halo, which has its share of fanboys, also has its share of haters… for exactly the same reason.
And I agree with the above comments about the HD-DVD drive. You guys have GOT to get that thing out on the market as soon as possible and hopefully at least a month before Christmas. I’m probably not alone in saying its a sure purchase for me compared to the 500 Toshiba players and honestly, as noted, 6 million potential sales?? It’s a no brainer. Let’s put an end to this ugly and stupid format war before it gets even uglier and stupider, and show Sony that they are not yet over the curse of the Betamax.
If Microsoft was savvy- they’d have the HD-DVD attachment available by October. Hit right before people spend their disposable income on other goodies, and turn the market.
Look at the HD-DVD movies and compare them to the flotsom that largely makes up the Blu-Ray list. Ever since I saw the little mock-up behind the glass at the show, I’ve wanted one. My TV is already to go.
Sony tied their system to Blu-Ray- so Microsoft in theory could strangle them with that giant albatross around their neck.
Even better, the average consumer would follow on Microsoft’s momentum- largely blurring Sony’s attempts at establishing/marketing Blu-Ray.
Not a while ago i heard blue ray was popular and widely available in japan, and since the rest of the world follows japan in entertainment and electronics right now, even 360 tried to follow japan, isnt blue ray stick between a rock and a home country of japan-thats-in-use place. While hd-dvd is in the sort of bachelor pad-too much expendable cash-bracket place right now. I hope the HD dvd player will be 60, thats affordable with a free media remote. i might buy an intercooler instead if its 100.
At the end of the day just be glad Sony didn’t postpone Christmas and New Year. I’m sure they’ve considered it.
Hey Oz,
like logikil said- just deliver the knockout punch to Sony at TGS. Sony has already dug their own grave, now just dump their lifeless console into it.
Thank you.
"Look at the HD-DVD movies and compare them to the flotsom that largely makes up the Blu-Ray list. Ever since I saw the little mock-up behind the glass at the show, I’ve wanted one. My TV is already to go."
I couldn’t agree more, I want one so bad but I can’t justify buying the Toshiba with the Xbox add on coming out. So this period of limbo could be hurting HD-DVD sales more than anything. One thing is sure, when PS3 launches, the 360 NEEDS the HD-DVD add on before that.
And none of that overpriced crap ($100 dollar 20 gig hard drive and $100 wifi adapter) it needs to be reasonable. But I seriously doubt 60 bucks reasonable… that’s a give away. No more than 150 bucks. If it’s more than that people are going to be hard pressed to buy an add-on (they traditionally fail) if it costs almost as much as the system itself. Microsoft needs to purposefully take a hit on price for it like they did with the 360. If Blue Ray does take over.. you can almost bet the PS3 will be the consumers first choice for a BD player and at that point things could get really hard for MS.
Speaking of Sony formats, I’m kinda sad at the death of the UMD movie. I don’t want to buy a 2gig memory card just to download videos when I can go buy a UMD with a case and just pop it in when I want to watch it. Then again paying 10 dollars more for the UMD than the DVD costs… no wonder it died. Sad though, walmart has already stopped stocking them
(
The real question for those of us on this side of the pond-
If Sony cannot fabricate enough machines, would it be willing to drop out of Japan to prop up the sales here in the US for the PS3 launch?
Or even bigger- If Sony just cannot release the machine into the mainstream market by Christmas- say only releasng 1000 systems via it’s lauded New York store-
would that be the death knell… or would the shortage of systems impact it all the same?
Microsoft did suffer a backlash from the system shortage- every news media was running stories about why to NOT buy a 360 and instead to wait for a PS3.
@sublime78
You know, I am almost sure that Sony will be taking a huge hit, and file for Chapter 11. Ok maybe, Chp.11 is a little far, but the company will not be doing well. I wonder what they will announce @ TGS cause the reality is, if they don’t announce any news like "We got good news we are back on track with our original launch figures" or something.. its bad news for Sony period. And I have to agree, for whatever reason I think they will do well selling their consoles. But I liked my Dreamcast and I didn’t see it coming when Sega announced that its out of the console market. And I loved my Dreamcast 4 or 5 games for it. Controller felt great for me, and I am loving the 360’s cause it remindes me so much of it.
To your "Playstation" brand loyalty comment. Sorry, I have asked a lot of people hands down. No matter who it is. Would you pay $600 for a game console if it was the next best thing since sliced bread(its not, but just to be fair). And all of them said No. They even mentioned that $400 was high, but not nearly as bad. I then mention if Playstation was behind the $600 version. It didnt change the response.
Fact is this is a razor on razorblade market, you cut your profits to make them up on title sales. But you dont take a big enough loss pushing out as many consoles to market, and there will be less 3rd Party to help recoup the loss because there is no market to make a profit. And this is where Sony is pushing themselves into. Samething wit Sega with the Dreamcast.
Now you mention that "Sony inserted themselves into the market as the cool system". But last I checked they lost that cool when they became arrogant and try’s to force a standard on people. The system that gains the cool factor is the one that works "with the people" to give them what they want. Granted, Microsoft doesn’t see eye to eye on the prices people suggest for their products, but they have come a long way. I used to be a serious hater of Microsoft in early 2000, but slowly I started to see a different company emerging that has a huge monkey on its back. Its past. I honestly can say that Microsoft is a different company that it once was, and I can honestly say that it probably started with Bill Gates getting married. That aside, Microsoft has a huge shadow to overcome. But, Sony is working ever so hard to become the shadow that Microsoft is trying to get rid of.
Now about the the HD-DVD drive, I have to agree with you on this completely. Every second the HD-DVD drive is not out for the 360 is every second that is giving blu-ray to fight back. I think HD-DVD is the better format mainly because it boils down to one thing.
Consistant video quality releases. And this is something a buddy of mine that was a huge blu-ray fan(now in the middle) agrees with me. Since blu-ray has come out it has done about everything wrong. But the biggest crime personally is inconsistant quality in the release of the movie titles that are released. I mean how do you know which codec its using? With HD-DVD is simple. Its VC1 and thats it. blu-ray has yet to fully support VC1 as they take their Mpeg-4(h.264) to 50 gig blu-ray discs. Personally h.264 is great for conference or email, which it was developed for, but looks like crap for movies. So what happens to all the movies that have been released on MPEG-2, are they going to be re-released in a better quality like the SuperBit BS? And its these simple screw ups that personally will undermine blu-ray.
In reference to the HD-DVD price, its most likely gonna be 200. But I think if they sell it @ 180 they will sell themselves. I mean its really close to 150, but its not 200. I will buy one regardless, but I think it will hurt Sony even more if they were going for 180 say the first three weeks. Take a sligth loss on the drive. It would help push the product even more so. I honestly cant wait for the
Sorry for the lengthy post.. :D
Its better to delay than have shortages…or course there will be shortages in NA and Asia.
Funny thing is why does Asia get less than the US.?? This is wrong as Asia has a very large population that play PS2…surely more effort would be put into that market??…something strange in that!!
One good thing about it been delayed in Europe is that they hopefully get rid of the system and HW bugs by then…only bad point is that the NA and Asia customers will be used as testers…not cheap testers either..
I think the delay in Europe will secure the lead for MS…if Sony don’t start to announce better up coming games…
ExTester…
I agree what you said in the loooooooooooong post..however I suspect current xbox 360 do not have HDMI digital signals available in the HW. I rememeber when the 360 was release a mod team stripped the 360 and analysed the 360 AV port. No digital traces could be found..only analog. I HDMI could be released but it will not be a true digital connection…?!?
Sony will only have 500,000 systems available at launch, and the other ‘promised’ 1.5 million systems are supposed to be ready when? Before year’s end?
How (un)likely is it that Sony will A)make 6 million units by March 2007, and B)not further delay the European launch to boost sales in the US and Japan?
I do wonder how some game developers and distributors feel about this whole deal, especially with some big next-gen titles scheduled for release during or right before the holiday season. Or maybe Sony has been aware of these problems for a long time and told everyone but the public…
At least Sony will have a biger launch line-up of games when they finally reach Europe. Sony fanboys will be yelling how much better the PS3’s launch titles look compared to the 360’s launch titles. Never mind the 1 year, 5 months delay.
I wasn’t defending sony, just noting the past. When the original Playstation came out I went for the Sega Saturn and I liked it more. But I couldn’t even count the people that ran out to buy a PS instead and the trend only grew during the PS2’s life cycle.
I’m not a microsoft hater, although I choose a Mac for my computer, but on that note I HAD to buy Office 2003 Proffessional for my XP PC for a class I’m taking online. So it pissed me off that Access isn’t part of the Mac office suite which I already had. It also pisses me off the Telecommunications and the Art departments at my school have pressed Macs on us only to get to the computer science dept. and see that they use PCs.
To me though the choice of console’s seems clear cut. I mean, even if the PS3 was somehow magically even CHEAPER than the 360 I would still rather have a 360 and I trust MS more with online content than I will ever trust Sony in that arena. Not to mention the PS3 seems to just be a rip-off of the 360 with slight Wii features thrown in.
As for HDMI, I understand why its important for the DVD player.. cause movie companies insist on a non-analog standard for HD movies, but at the same time I can’t tell a huge difference. I’m running HDMI on my DirecTV reciever to a 57′ sony (yeah yeah, I know) TV and of course Component from the Xbox360. If anything the 360 STILL looks better due to the sharp and precise nature of game graphics. But when I switched from component to HDMI on my satellite I couldn’t really tell a damn difference in picture. Maybe different for games and DVD players, I dunno.
$200 would be reasonable, I could do that, but I still think MS needs to take a mammoth hit ON PURPOSE to just "get it out there" if there’s ANY aprehension in the minds of the consumer, that’s a bad thing. The choice needs to be obvious and the price needs to be low. A free remote controll is not going to sale the thing. They also have to note due to the timing (holiday season) that the higher the price on the HD-DVD player the less A. HD-DVD movies and B. 360 games the consumer is going to be able to purchase that season, and I know a lot of people that would happily take Gears of War over watching HD movies.
Here’s a crazy idea… give it away to 360 owners. Seriously, and instantly have like millions and millions of HD-DVD players out there. Yeah it would hurt MS but it would help Toshiba and pretty much kill Sony and the Blue Ray. Plus it would goad people on the fence to choose the 360 during the holiday season.
I’m still waiting on the next PR bomb from Sony along the lines of "Our games will cost 80 bucks each". The President of Sony has already said that they won’t be a 100 dollars but dont kill him if they are more than 60.
I really dont see them withstading another PR hit like that but I know it’s coming. They have to make more profit to offset the loss on the console they are taking and they will have to do that with software and accessories.
Outlook not good for PS3 and Sony in general these days.
The Blue Laser shortage mentioned as the hold-up for the PS3, will also impact HD-DVD as it is the same part.
With yields so low, even if MS launches the HD-DVD for the holidays, I predict that it will be in very short supply.
It’s no secret that the HD-DVD camp is selling their product at a significant loss in an effort to gain market share. That translates into MS having to take a loss on each HD-DVD add-on drive that is sells for the 360 or no one will want one. That’s a plus for 360 owners, but MS’s only justification for extending further losses on 360 division, would be if they are attempting to "buy" HD-DVD’s success.
The truth is that no one can truly predict the outcome of the 360 vs. PS3 race. After the dust settles, it will 100% come down to content. If the PS3 has the exclusive content that gamers want, the PS3 will win. If the 360 has the content, gamers will stick with it. I’ll have both, and I expect others to also do the same.
Just flash-back to the Dreamcast. It looked like the killer platform but the content just wasn’t there and the PS/2 dominated.
@bob
http://xe360.com/article/Xbox_360_Accessories/3768.html
http://www.beyond3d.com/previews/ati/avivo/index.php?p=03
"At first glance, I said to myself “what, HDMI is not possible for the Xbox 360.” I also do not claim to be a techno guru with the T.V department but that what they were selling. I was searching around the xbox forums to see if this is old news and an interesting tidbit led to quote from anandtech posted by Nielo TM:
"Originally we assumed the chip below was a TV encoder, but we’ve since found out that the TV encoder on ATI’s Xenos GPU is identical to what is on the ATI Radeon X1000 series of PC graphics cards – meaning the Xbox 360’s TV encoder is located on the Xenos GPU itself and makes use of ATI’s Xilleon display engine.”
"The display engine also features the hardware that actually drives the display output, and Avivo has a number of enhancements here. Dual 400MHz 10-bit per component DAC’s remain, as in previous graphics implementations, however this time the TV-Out display engine has been lifted directly from ATI’s consumer electronics Xilleon processor (this engine can be found to be driving the displays of many Sony televisions, for example). The last generation of Radeon products only integrated a single link, 165MHz, TMDS transmitter for DVI output, however Avivo products will feature two integrated dual link transmitters, hence two digital panels can be independently driven to 2048×1536 @ 75 Hz or 2560×1600 resolutions."
– I beg to differ..
Another question people haven’t asked is:
For those few systems released here in the States- what percentage of those will be the maligned stripped-down version?
If there are more of those units than the "premium" version, expect Sony to catch as much- if not more heck from the gaming populace.
When the 360 hit, parents didn’t care or know what was in the Premium version- all they knew is that they didn’t want a Core.
This news hurts Sony bigtime no if ands or buts about it. I guess the question now is what is Microsoft going to do to hurt Sony even more? Microsoft needs to go in for the kill if there was ever a time this is it.
Microsoft needs to come out and blow the roof off of TGS and X06. Major game announcements and one of them HAS to involve the 360 getting Final Fantasy XIII in some shape or form or Dragon Quest.
It’s not going to be a good year for HD-DVD if it’s not a good year for Sony. Both HD-DVD and Blu-Ray use the same wavelength laser diode. Sony make up a principle percentage of the manfacturing. Those diodes are going straight into the PS3.
This really should be such a big problem. Sony priced the PS3 fairly high to aviod the ebay-tastic launch MS made. They are launching a very similar number of PS3’s as Xbox360’s were sold. The $500-600 price is about right given the limited supply. It’s far better than getting ripped off on e-bay and having a launch unit with no warranty.
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