To Do: 2007 Predictions and Prognostications
I’ve been thinking about doing a “Top 10 2007 predictions” post to put some stakes in the ground that we can revisit a year from now and see how I did. I may try to go back into posts from this year and do a quick scorecard as well – won’t be as elegant since I didn’t have an explicit prediction post to review.
What I wanted to ask this audience is what topics/areas would you like to see thoughts on? Just throw out your burning questions/predictions in comments, and I’ll keep them in mind as I pull together a top 10 for everyone to argue about. 
[Edit: Should have mentioned this, but when you place a prediction/stake you'd like to track, please also include a measurable metric that we can review at the end of the year. In other words, if you were arguing that one of the HD movie formats would be on top, you should state by how much (X% perhaps), and how it would be measured (number of movies available on Amazon for either format could be another example).]
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Well the obvious question is what percent of the marketshare each console will have (this gen numbers only of course, no PS2’s). I’d also like to know what you anticipate as being the 360’s next big blockbuster title in 2007, you know other than Halo 3 and GTA IV and such. I’m talking about new IP’s here. Finally, I’d like to hear your thoughts on downloadable/episodic content. Is it here to stay or just a passing fad? Or will it still be too early a year from now to tell?
How about how many PS3 "exclusives" come to Xbox 360 in 2007? We can’t count Virtua Fighter because that was already announced! My bet is 4 (more)!
Keep in mind I may not be able to comment/predict on some 360 topics due to perhaps having some internal knowledge that I can’t even hint at sharing.
Keep them coming – good stuff so far!
I can see the XBox 360 beating the PS3 and coming up on top, with the Wii at a close 2nd. HDDVD will come out on top after everyone considers the advantages it has and the more advanced features. No specific number predictions. Also, 360 will acquire a large fan base, as a lot of the PS3 fans will convert to 360 because of PS3 shortages and shortcomings.
Forgot to mention: http://www.joystiq.com/2006/12/22/toshiba-wants-to-beat-sony-with-first-non-ps3-cell-device/
Toshiba WILL come out with the first nonPS3 cell device, it will be a HDDVD player, and it will be available in time for the holidays of 2007.
Ironic, don’t you think?
One anagram: HDMI. Please. No more joking around.
Will the 360 hit the 20 million sales mark by holiday 07? Considering that there might be a price drop?
and everyone!!! i am still hoping microsoft release hdmi Xbox 360 because my 1080p tv doesnt have vga, nor that it accepts 1080p signal by component. it has hdmi btw. i really wanna watch 1080p hd-dvd movies now!!!
A couple:
Will Microsoft be able to put a stop to or ban gamesave achievement point cheaters (like the current leaderboard leader and hundreds others?)
Will Sony institute their own running score system? Will game on the 360 sell better than their PS3 counterparts?
Will MS try to get US publishers to release big games like Oblivion in Japan to help sales numbers?
The interesting things are xbox related.
And I don’t think you could comment on those.
lost planet to be most played game on xbox live at least one week.
more than 100 wii- injuries before summer
By Fall 2007 we’ll have players on the market that can do both HD-DVD and Blu-Ray.
I guess if you want a more specic, measurable date, I’ll say Thanksgiving at the latest.
Another prediction would be when MS will abandon support for the core system. Maybe they won’t but I can’t see them able to compete for very long limited by having to design without a HD in mind.
1. Gears of War will remain the most played game on Xbox Live until Halo 3 launches (Q4 07)
2. HD DVD will win over Blu-ray for optical storage in 2007 and will be made obsolete by digital distributuion in 2008. MS release larger HDD for the 360 by May of 07.
1) When Halo 3 is released :
A) Will there be enough supply to meet the demand…almost like the consoles?
B) How much will it gross and what record will it set when it is released?
2) Will Microsoft Start making a modded controller to take advantage of the Wii phenomenom?
3) How many Motion picture companies will support both HDDVD and BLURAY or will they all remain the same or will they remain loyal to one?
4) What month will the 360 allow us to browse the internet as the competitors do?
5) Whose console will have the first price drop and what month will it occur?
HDD … Xbox 360 Core will be dropped and replaced with "Platinum," a silver Xbox 360 with a larger HDD.
Larger HDD will also be sold separately for too much money. Eager first-adopters (like me) will happily snap them up anyway.
64MB Memory Units will slowly disappear after 256MB MU’s hit the shelves. Microsoft will attempt to quietly lift the 50MB limitation on Xbox Live Arcade titles in favor of a non-publicized higher limit. Blogosphere brings much unwanted attention to this change. Subsequently humans, droids, and ewoks selebrate together with bongos in treetops.
I’m really really hoping MS begin to include HDDs in every 360 pack, so that developers start to actually make games that use it. It really was a step backwards from original xbox not including it with every console.
I’m thinking, like above, that they’ll make the 20Gb pack the "core" version and the "premium" will come with a larger HDD.
I would love to be able to send tv shows from my 360 to my Zune.
Hello my little friends again
will Wii and PS3 sell more units worldwide on their first year than the X360 on its first year?
I predict that the Core pack will still exist at the end of the year, and will be priced at $250 or less by Thanksgiving 2007.
I predict that Namco will announce an entry in the Tales RPG series (probably a remake) for Xbox 360 by TGS 2007.
I predict that Halo3 will ship by September 2007, and sell 3 million copies in it’s first month on the market.
I predict that Halo3 will be the holiday pack in game for Christmas 2007 (this years was MotoGP 06 or Call of Duty 2 or Burnout Revenge).
I predict that EA will verbaly slam Gears again before they come out with there Co-op that will rule all(Army of Two) and I believe EA will be silenced by the Crack Down’s co-op. I also predict that if microsoft can get there *** together I’ll be pwn’in you on my Xune!
Which PC Games will end up appearing on consoles, WoW anyone? Related: How quickly keyboard+mouse becomes required for playing fps/rpg games online. Also related: How soon the xbox/ps3 becomes little more than a mid-end PC for many users.
Which company will exploit handheld integration with consoles better. Based on number of games utilizing extended handheld features?
Will the increasing number of Japanese RPGs released in 2007 begin to give the 360 a foot hold in Japan? I think it depends on what is coming out on the PS3.
Will MGS4 come to the 360? I think so.
Will we see the trend of major developers opting for the 360 over the PS3 as we saw them opt Sony over Nintendo over 10 years ago? It depends on how long the PS3 shortage lasts as well as how well the 360 sold this Christmas. If the mainstream non-gamers buy 360 and enjoy it, then yes.
Will Microsoft release a bigger hardrive? Yes, beginning of Q2.
One more.
Will Duke Nukem Forever be released after 10+ years in development. No.
before talking about 2007 could i ask anyone whether 360 has reached 10m to users???
I predict that most downloadable content available for games in 2007 will actually be "unlocking keys" which simply unlock content already stored on the game disc itself as the game industry seeks to leech more and more money out of gamers by holding back content that should have been included with the game they purchased, making them pay extra for it instead. (see http://news.teamxbox.com/xbox/12491/Unlocking-Keys-Disguised-as-Downloadable-Content/)
It appears someone named Master Ninja is already tracking this trend.
However, I predict that the backlash to this trend will not intensify until 2008 when gamers will begin to avoid these downloads and the games that use this scheme alltogether or find ways to unlock the content without paying for it. I predict the game makers will cry about their need to increase their revenue streams by duping consumers in this fashion. I predict the game industry will implode itself in the process by making casual gamers feel like it will costs $100+ to enjoy the full experience of a game thereby causing said gamers to find better ways to entertain themselves by spending their money elsewhere.
Top 10 Predictions for 2007
10. XBox360 will have multiple hd options > 100GB
9. XBox360 hardware refresh which will include HDMI, improved thermals (mainly from CPU update), Wireless USB and integrated HDDVD drive
8. XBox360 will have direct access to friends Microsoft Live Spaces
7. XBox360 will have direct access to Microsoft Soapbox content
6. XBox360 will have direct access to Zune Marketplace for music
5. XBox360/Zune will share common interface for Media Playback. You finally will be able to browse by Album Art.
4. Zune will support XBox MarketPlace for movies
3. XBox360 will get some MSN Direct content
2. XBox360 Network TV Tuner that will be able stream Live TV without MCE. And if you have a MCE, the device can be used by MCE DVR capabilities.
1. Portable Gaming Device announced along with other Zune portables.
2007 will be about connected entertainment. Lets see if Microsoft can put together a coehesive ecosystem (MCE, XBox and Zune) that provides a common experience. Currently each device has its own experience…thats got to change. Microsoft also needs to explain the ecosystem much more and network diagram a variety of setups.
RE: To Do: 2007 Predictions and Prognostications
As promised , here are my game industry predictions for 2007. I wanted to publish them today, at the