Xbox 360 Holiday Sales Spike
I was in a conversation at Evil Avatar where some folks were doubting the veracity of Peter Moore's statement that Xbox 360 would ship 10 million units by the end of 2006. To quote the statement:
Peter Moore, vice president of Microsoft's entertainment and devices division which oversees Xbox, confirmed the company's expectation that Xbox 360 shipments would reach 10 million by the end of 2006, and 13 million to 15 million by the end of its 2007 fiscal year.
The primary reason is because Microsoft recently announced we'd shipped 6 million units, and people were struggling to believe the difference could be made up in just a few short months. The good news is that this is quite possible. To quote, well… myself <shrug>:
You have to remember holiday is something like 40-50% of the business… insane, I know, but that's also why so many games are targeted for Thanksgiving release – to take advantage of those sales.
What was particularly useful in this thread was that someone pointed to NPD data that shows this trend very clearly. Since I don't know what permissions are associated with publishing this data, I'll simply point you toward it. But you'll see that the holiday sales spike is very real in this industry, and it's the reason I believe we'll easily ship 10 million units of Xbox 360 by the end of the year.
The interesting question is whether having a ten million unit lead will matter. My guess is that it will – there will be plenty of folks who can't find a PS3 or Wii this holiday who will want to take something home to put under the tree. And common sense says sometime in the future (no, I'm not making any specific predictions or sharing confidential information), the Xbox 360 will drop in price. No matter when that happens, manufacturing scale and cost reductions will place 360 in a much better place financially to do so versus PS3. They may or may not choose to match, but the pressure will be on, and will be quite painful. All that's to say I look forward to the day when I can buy a PS3 for less than $600.
Ok. I'll stop kicking the puppy now. 
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Agreed. The holiday push is the reason all the software publishers wait until RIGHT NOW to start crowding the field with all the new releases. C’mon, guys. I need some gamage during the summer months, too!
Yep. But it’s a tricky chicken and egg problem for a publisher. Do you lose sales if you don’t release in holiday? Can you make up those sales by selling a game in a quieter period with less competition? Tough call, which is why we’re where we are today.
Always good to see you getting involved in the EvAV boards Oz.
The Sony PS2 original figures were interesting too I think – keeping in mind…
PS2 – US$299.99 (October 26, 2000, Launch Price)
PS2 – US$199.99 (May 14, 2002) (CAD$299.99)
(wiki reference)
Figures from here (publicly available information – link posted on Wiki – and quoting SHIPPED (as opposed to sold) numbers – http://www.scei.co.jp/corporate/data/bizdataps2_e.html)
–
Point to an interesting christmas/holiday spike – but an even more alarming spike after the price hit $200 in May. (have a look at the link – the chart is comprehensive – and I won’t clog any more space by cutting and pasting it here.
(1.55 million – at $300 from 10/10/01 to 12/31/02
(2.42 million – at $200 from 5/5/02 to 6/30/02)
Funny that – as similar to PS2 in Christmas 01 – 360 is hitting it’s second christmas – and the first when it’s been in plentiful supply – and after an initial slow 12 months of first releases, is starting to get a stream of quality looking original IP, and nextgen continuing IP from established franchises.
Food for thought.
Though I have no doubt if Pro Evo 6 didn’t look gimped in terms of features/editmodes/satdiums compared to the last gen version – most all of Europe’d be switching to 360 right now.
"puppy kicker"…hehe…when are people going to catch on that Andre "Ozymandias" Vrignaud is actually Peter Moore’s alter ego.
I can prove it! You’ll carefully notice that "Andre Vrignaud" is actually an anagram of "Peter Moore".
ok, ok. You have to do some ASCII bit-padding and a few character rotations.
ok, a LOT of rotations.
Wait, are we talking units ‘shipped’ or ‘sold’? ’Shipping’ 10 million units to distributors and retailers by the end of the year would appear to be achievable because that’s up to Microsoft and their manufacturers. 10 million units ‘sold’, well that means something else entirely. I’ve always been annoyed by the tactic many companies use by bragging about how many units they’ve shipped. Who cares? How many did you SELL to actual customers?
Of that 10 million, how many of those have gone to replace defective units? I for one have returned two 360′s to Costco because they broke. My brother is on his second, and same goes for many of my friends. That said, of the 10 million, more than half will probably be returned as defective, leaving only 5 million actual users.
People may be hard pressed to find a PS3 but it doesn’t look like the Wii will fall in that category.
I think 10 million can happen. The holiday season will bring a huge boost, but even now when I go to Best Buy I consistently see people buying Xbox 360.
Well, to put it another way, this xmas season is going to be extremely overcrowded and someone is going to lose out.
Microsoft reckon they will sell 4 million more consoles by the end of the year, Sony want to sell 2 million, and Nintendo want to sell 4 million? That gives a total of 10 million consoles in under 8 weeks…
And lets not forget all the people who will want new ps2 consoles to play guitar hero,FF12 etc, all the people who want a DS or a psp. And finally lets take into account all the people who will want to buy new software, in particular Gears of War and Twilight Princess!
So, to sum up, its going to be one hell of a xmas for the market but someone is going to be sitting down on January 1st and drastically rearrangng their sales figures… no idea who it will be but there is just simply not enough money to go around!
I don’t think this Christmas will be quite as tell as Xmas ’07 when all consoles should be readily available. 2007 will be a VERY important year for the PS3. They will be very hard to find for a while, but after the initial rush wears off will John Q. Public want to pay $600 for a console? I know the playstation name carries a lot of weight, but I just don’t think Sony can close the gap as quickly as they think with that price.If MS is smart, they will drop the price of the premium system $50 and include a game as soon as the PS3 is readily available.
My problem is deciding if I will purchase a Wii or 360 first. That 360 would be sweet on my LCD monitor, but I wants me some Zelda and crazy Wiimote Monkey-ball action…
Dozens, you are right. The Wii might be easy to find, Nintendo has issued Press Releases urging Gamers to reserve it — apparently Wii reserves have not meet Nintendo’s expectations.
Listen to the 1up podcast on 11/3/2006 they mention it and laugh about it.